Intel: Déjà vu all over again?

18. February 2008 by Martin Suter.

TheStreet.com reported today that a $2b investment from Intel may revive the Sprint-Clearwire WiMAX joint venture.

Can you say déjà vu all over again?

One word: Cometa.

The vaunted joint venture, founded in late 2002 and backed by Intel, AT&T and IBM, with venture backing from Apax and 3i, Cometa had grand plans to roll out 20,000 Wi-Fi hotspots by 2004, so that people nationwide would be no more than a five minute walk from one.

In a Wi-Fi Planet article, one of the founders is quoted as saying: “If we knew all about where demand for wireless broadband access is going to end up, it would be too late to start the company. Clearly, there’s a leap of faith required here.”

In a stunningly prescient comment later in the article, Marcos Lara, founder and managing director of Public Internet Project, points to the failure of wireless Internet access provider Ricochet as a cautionary tale: “My point is, the model for Ricochet was no different.”

Eighteen months later, despite the backing of 3 heavyweights, Cometa quietly fizzled out, closing its doors in May 2004.

But here we are again, with Intel, Clearwire and Sprint trying to drag WiMAX, kicking and screaming, up the technology hype curve to the peak of inflated expectations. But like Groundhog Day, we’ve already lived through this twice already. Maybe the third times the charm, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

It’s not a question of technology, it’s a function of business model.

That’s my .02!

Martin

(martin.suter@iplicensing.net)

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